Russia-Ukraine War: Possible Solutions to the Conflict

More than a month and a half into the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, Mr Matthew Richards from the Social Sciences Department at the Tec de Monterrey Hidalgo Campus, shares with CONECTA the possible solutions to the war.

"What can lead to a rapid and peaceful solution is a situation in which the two nations can go to their people and say, 'We won'," Richards asserts.

For Zelensky, Ukraine's president, he can clearly say 'I won' if the Russians leave his territory.

Putin could claim victory in the Russian media in three ways: first, by maintaining eastern Ukraine, the Donetsk and Luhansk provinces of the Donbas region, or making it part of the Russian Federation, as he did with Crimea.

Two other ways "To win for the Russians would be the overthrow or resignation of Zelensky, or a firm commitment from Ukraine that it would never belong to NATO or the European Union," Richards explains.

But the conflict could also end in several other ways.

The war would end if Ukraine's defences were no longer effective and Russia were to fully occupy Ukrainian territory.

Also possible is a Ukrainian victory over Russia, in which the Russian army and population are expelled from Ukrainian territory in their entirety. This would only happen if the West continues to supply arms and ammunition to Ukraine.

But the ongoing supply of arms would more likely result in a protracted conflict and a military stalemate.

Russia has the upper hand in negotiations, because it controls territory.

This scenario of a lengthy war, would mean a Russian Vietnam or Afghanistan, where the wasting of blood and treasure would greatly weaken Russia's global economic and military influence.

Based on recent images and news reports, he says, it is clear on the one hand that Ukraine has successfully resisted the Russian invasion, but on the other, we can perceive that Russia seems to have no intention of stopping the war.

"We have all been surprised by how Ukraine has defended its territory," he says. Moreover, Russia has given up its goal of overthrowing the Ukrainian government; the Russian army has already retreated from the area around Kiev.

Russia's aims now appear to be to keep the eastern part of Ukraine and to stifle Ukrainian exports by occupying the south of the country, where its seaports are located.

We have all been surprised by how Ukraine has defended its territory.

Division of territory

Richards explains that if the conflict continues for a significant period of time, a division of Ukraine's territory, similar to the case of the two Koreas or of Cyprus and Turkey, with their extensive demilitarized zones, is feasible.

"The Donbas region could become a kind of 'Eastern Ukraine' that has more in common with the Russian state than Ukraine," Richards says. “The new country would be a ‘buffer state’ between Russia and the rest of a more pro-European Ukraine.”

Negotiations

Richards makes clear that Russia has the upper hand in negotiations, because it controls territory.

By destroying several cities and blockading southern Ukraine to affect its economy by stopping its exports, Russia gains more power in the negotiations, he says.

"A peace may be negotiated and formalized in a treaty, we should never say never, but the goals of the two sides are not compatible.”

For Matthew, the main factor in finding a solution is goodwill on both sides, but unfortunately on the part of the Russian president and based on his track record, anything that looks like losing is not an option.

"There have been some incredible moments in history where antagonism has ended unexpectedly, such as Anwar Sadat and Israel, the Good Friday agreements in Northern Ireland, and Rwanda, but sadly a conflict can carry on for years," he says.

But the goals of the two sides are not compatible.

Unlikely results

Richards says there are two further possible outcomes that are not feasible and can be ruled out:

Firstly, there are those who think that there will be some sort of coup d'état within Russia to overthrow President Vladimir Putin.

The other possibility is that the conflict between Ukraine and Russia will escalate into a larger-scale conflict involving more nations. He sees both these possibilities as unlikely.

Consequences

Whatever solution is reached, there will continue to be repercussions against Russia.

"We are seeing leaders in the West speaking out in increasingly more vigorous tones against Putin," says Matthew. "Yet they continue to buy Russian natural gas."

Therefore, Europe will have to re-evaluate how it imports or generates its energy, to not rely on natural gas from Russia, he asserts.

 Reconfiguring power

"What we are also seeing is a reconfiguration in global power," Richards adds.

"We can see, as some internationalists have long predicted, the decline of a unipolar world. It is a multipolar world that the United States cannot control."

If the conflict continues for a significant period of time, a division of Ukraine's territory is feasible.

Ukrainians at the end of the conflict

According to Richards, Ukraine will undergo a considerable drop in population, depending on the duration of the war. Many of the refugees who have fled Ukraine will not return to the country after the end of the conflict, especially if they settle well in the countries that have received them.

Furthermore, in the aftermath of the conflict, Ukraine will be heavily damaged, with several parts of its territory destroyed. "The destruction of cities like Mariupol is similar to what was seen in Chechnya," he says.

"It’s clear that given the global media spotlight on the war, the international community will definitely help in the reconstruction of Ukraine," he concludes.

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